Mariners in 4?

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The last time the Seattle Mariners competed in the American League playoffs, their deciding game with the Houston Astros went 18 innings.

Most likely Game One of the AL Divisional series between the M’s and the Detroit Tigers will have the same electricity in the Safeco Field stands that the Astros 1-0 victory had in 2002.

A baseball playoff game isn’t the norm in the Emerald City as the Mariners have only seen the post-season three times in the 21st century. That was evident in the two nights of celebration when the Mariners earned a playoff berth and then won the division with two home victories over baseball’s worst team of 2025- the Colorado Rockies.

The Mariners, who won their first AL West title since 2001 earned a first-round bye and loom as the favorites over the Detroit Tigers who squeezed past the Cleveland Guardians in a best-of-three first round playoff series. Seattle hosts the Bengals in two weekend games and the best-of-five series moves back to Detroit on Tuesday and Wednesday. A deciding game (if needed) would be next Friday in Seattle.

The Tigers showed signs of life in that series after limping through the final month of the season. Detroit won only one series in September- against the Yankees, who are also in the AL playoffs against the Toronto Blue Jays- and lost five out of six regular season tilts to the Guardians, blowing the Central Division title. The Tigers had the best record in MLB at the All-Star break.

Seattle appears to have the pitching advantage in Game One. George Kirby, who missed the first month of the season with an injury, has been the Mariners best pitcher down the stretch with a 2.95 ERA in his last four games (10-8, 4.21 overall).

Detroit used its three best starters- Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty- in its opening series. Manager A.J. Hinch will hand the ball for Game 1 to Troy Melton, who pitched in A ball a year ago, and has started a grand total of five major league games. He was also the losing pitcher in relief, in Detroit’s game two loss to the Guardians. He surrendered four hits and recorded only one out.

Game 2 pits Tarek Skubal, en route to his second straight Cy Young Award, against Luis Castillo, who pitched well in the Mariners 2022 playoff run. Castillo has been somewhat mediocre this season, but like Kirby, has pitched his best ball the last month of the season.

Game 3 gets interesting because Bryan Woo (15-7, 2,99 ERA) who’s been the Mariners’ best overall starter this season, hasn’t pitched since Sept,21 when he left the mound with soreness in his right pectoral. He threw 25 pitches in a simulated game on Thursday, but as of last night, the M’s hadn’t made a decision on adding Woo to the series’ roster.

The Mariners, with their pitching depth will still have Logan Gilbert, a 2024 All-Star, available for a game in Detroit. Seattle should have a big advantage in the bullpen with closer Andres Munoz, left-hander Gabe Speir, and Matt Brash. Former Mariner Will Vest, has been the Tigers’ closer the second half of the season.

Offensively, everyone knows what Cal Raleigh has done this year. The first non-Yankee (and catcher) to reach 60 home runs, and he’ll probably win a Golden Glove for his defense. Julio Rodriguez, the M’s other `star’ had 18 home runs in his last 65 games, hitting .295 on the season.

The player to watch in the series could be M’s left-fielder Randy Arozarena. He was a playoff MVP before his first full season with the Tampa Bay Rays. Arozarena has 11 homers, five doubles and a .349 batting average in 28 post-season games. With an .1138 OPS, only two guys named Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig have a higher OPS in over 100 post-season at bats.

The Tigers didn’t do a lot of hitting in their series with Cleveland. Catcher Dillon Dingler had the only home run and Spencer Torkelson and Wencel Perez each drove in two runs. Javier Baez (5 for 11) was Detroit’s best hitter in the series.

The key to the series will be Detroit winning a game that Skubal doesn’t pitch. In their position-by-position comparisons, the MLB website gave the Mariners the advantage at seven positions, plus the bullpen.

But even if you think that Mize and Flaherty are a wash against Mariner pitchers (a bit optimistic), look for Seattle to win in four.

Other Seattle SPORTs Now picks – Yankees, Philadelphia, Milwaukee.

 

 


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